Future Trends of Retail In India
by R. Yuvarani
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Indian retail sector is highly fragmented as compared to the developed as well as the other developing countries. This shows a great potential for the organized retail industry to prosper in India, as the market for the final consumption in India is very large. Retail trade is largely in the hands of private independent owners and distributor’s structure for fast moving consumer goods consisting of multiple layers such as carrying and forwarding agents, distributors, stockiest, wholesalers and retailers. Thus, the growth potential for the organized retailer is enormous. In the next 2-3 years, India will finally see operations of a number of very serious international players- net withstanding the current restrictions on FDI in retail.
The Indian retail sector is ready to take on challenges from global retail players such as Wal-mart and Carrefour because unlike them, they have a better understanding of the Indian consumer’s psyche. Ultimately, a successful retailer is one who understands his customer. The Indian customer is looking for an emotional connection, a sense of belonging. Hence, to be successful any retail outlet has to be localized. The customer should feel that it is a part of his culture, his perceived values, and does not try to impose alien values or concepts on him. Indian customer is not keen to buy something just because it is sold by an international company.
Retailing in India is witness to the boom in terms of modern retailing formats, shopping malls etc. the future of retailing for any product across the country will definitely be in malls where the consumer can get variety, quality and ambience.
However, in spite of this continuous debate to be or not to be, recently Government has allowed up to 51 percent FDI in single brand retailing by foreign companies like Reebok and Louis Vuiton. As of now, single brand retailers operate through the franchisee route and there is a strong view that FDI in this segment would not displace jobs or impact the local industry but help create employment.
Even today the government is undecided about the level FDI in retail, but a number of foreign players, including the Wal-mart stores, Inc., have announced their intention to enter India in a big way. At present Wal-mart is operating through its subsidiary in Bangalore, which was functioning as a liaison office till last year. Now it is in the process of setting up offices in New Delhi and Mumbai.
RETAILING IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Retailing in the new millennium stands as an exciting, complex and critical sector of business in most developed as well as emerging economies. Today, the retailing industry is being buffeted by a number of forces simultaneously, e.g., increasing competition within and across retailing formats, the growth of online retailing, the advent of “Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology, the explosion in customer-level data availability, the global expansion of major retail chains like WAL-MART and METRO Group and so on. Making sense of it all is not easy but of vital importance to retailing practitioners, analysis and policymakers.
RETAIL IN INDIA - THE FUTURE
According to a study the size of the Indian Retail market is currently estimated at Rs.704 crores, which accounts for a meager 3% of the total retail market. As the market becomes more and more organized the Indian retail industry will gain greater worth. The Retail sector in the small towns and cities will increase by 50% to 60% pertaining to easy and inexpensive availability of land and demand among consumers.
Growth in India Real estate sector is also complementing the Retail sector and thus it becomes a strong feature for the future trend. Over a period of next 4 years there will be a retail space demand of 40 million sq. ft. However with growing real estate sector space constraint will not be there to meet this demand. The growth in the retail sector is also caused by the development of retail specific properties like malls and multiplexes.
According to a report, from the year 2003 to 2008 the retail sales are growing at a rate of 8.3% per annum. With this the organized retail which currently has only 3% of the total market share will acquire 15%-20% of the market share by the year 2010.
Factors that are playing a role in fuelling the bright future of the Indian Retail are as follows:
- The income of an average Indian is increasing and thus there is a proportional increase in the purchasing power.
- The infrastructure is improving greatly in all regions is benefiting the market.
- Indian economy and its policies are also becoming more and more liberal making way for a wide range of companies to enter Indian market.
- Indian population has learnt to become a good consumer and all national and international brands are benefiting with this new awareness.
- Another great factor is the internet revolution, which is allowing foreign brands to understand Indian consumers and influence them before entering the market. Due to the reach of media in the remotest of the markets, consumers are now aware of the global products and it helps brands to build themselves faster in a new region
However despite these factors contributing to the growth of Indian retail Industry, there are a few challenges that the industry faces which need to be dealt with in order to realize the complete scope of growth in Indian market.
Foreign direct investment is not allowed in retail sector, which can be a concern for many brands. But Franchise agreements circumvent this problem. Along with this regulation, local laws, and real estate purchase restrictions bring up challenges. Other than this lack of integrated supply chain, management, and lack of trained workforce and flux of the market in terms of price and product choice also need to be eliminated.
The Indian Retail Street is set to glow brighter with India recapturing its position as the most attractive destination for global retailers, despite the global slump. According to the Global Retail Development Index (GRDI) released by US-based global management consulting firm, A T Kearney, India has emerged as best country amongst 30 emerging markets. This reinforces the fact that trade with India is a golden opportunity to be capitalized upon. Interestingly, Russia clinched the second position, while China settled for the third spot. The report also stated that India has become the most attractive destination for retail investment for the fourth time in five years.
Currently India has one of the largest numbers of retail outlets in the world. According to a report by images Retail estimates the number of operational malls will grow more than two-fold, i.e., it will cross 412, with 205 million square feet getting covered by 2010. Nearly 715 malls will be added by 2015, with major retail developments in tier-II and tier-III cities fuelling further growth.
Many global retailers have given thumps up to trade with India.
The future ahead Industry experts see the rise of the rural sector in the coming years. Currently, rural market comprises nearly half of the domestic retail market of India, i.e., US$ 300 billion. The per capital income of the rural India has reportedly grown by 50 percent over the last 10 years, mainly because of the rising commodity prices and better productivity. According to E&Y India, basic infrastructure, generation of employment guarantee schemes, better information services and access to funding are ushering in good times for the rural households.
- As per the new market research report by RNCOS, organized retail market is expected to reach US$ 50 billion by 2011
- The boom in the retail market will fuel the growth of the logistic market. It is estimated the market will reach around US$20 billion by 2011.
- Retailing of mobile handset and accessories is estimated to reach close to US$990 million by 2010.
- Rural market is estimated to lead the Indian retail industry landscape in the future.
- Shopping malls are expected to increase at a CAGR of more than 18.9 per cent from 2007 to 2015.
INDIAN RETAIL LANDSCAPE
Raising income and increase consumerism are fueling retail growth.
|Year||$ billion retail growth|
Sources: Retail in India-A CII-AT Kearney report
According to NCEAR forecasts, the number of ‘rich’ households (the target market for modern retail stores) is expected to more than double from 57 million in 2002 to 107 million by 2010. The proportion of India’s population, that is less than 25 years of age stands at more than 50 percent currently while more than 80 percent of the population is below the age of 45 years. This ‘young population’ segment is driving the changes in consumption habits and spending patterns. An increasing proportion of the young population is joining the work force, and adding to overall spending, which should bode well for the growth of modern retail formats in India. Growing urbanization (malls are likely to be concentrated in urban areas) is also fuelling modern retail format growth. It is expected that India’s urban population will grow from 21 percent of the overall population in 2000 to 32 percent by 2010.
The following factors will be significant in driving growth in the retail sector:
- Increase in income
- Working women
- Changes in lifestyle demand for ‘global’ trend
Supply side factors
- Growing importance of retailing in political and economic agenda.
- Real estate reforms to be undertaken in the next 24 months.
- Major restructuring of the manufacturing sector easing product supply constraints for efficient retailing.
- Reduction in import duties- offering more global sourcing options.
COMPETITION FOR FUTURE MARKET LEADER
India’s organized retail, although less than Rs 45,000 crore in size, already boasts of several players different formats and categories. The big players are Future Group (Big Bazzar and Pantaloon) of Kishore Biyani, Tata Group (it runs departmental stores under Westsite, a books and music chain called Landmark, hypermarket star India bazaar, and a customer durables Chain christened Crima, in a tie up with UK’s Woolworths),Sanjiv Goneka,s RPG Group (Food World and Spencer’s), and Dubai-based Micky Jagtiani’s Land mark group (life style). That apart, there are several smaller players, including Subhiksha, Trinetra, and Nilgiri’s. Most recently, the Kumar Mangalam Birla-led AV Birla Group has announced plans of entering retail.
The retail sector has played a phenomenal role throughout the world in increasing productivity of consumer goods and services. It is also the second largest industry in US in terms of numbers of employees and establishments. There is no denying the fact that most of the developed economies are very much relying on their retail sector as a locomotive of growth. The Retail Industry in India has come forth as one of the most dynamic and fast paced industries with several players entering the market. But all of them have not yet tasted success because of the heavy initial investments that are required to break even with other companies and compete with them. The India Retail Industry is gradually inching its way towards becoming the next boom industry. Favorable government policies and continued growth will mean that the future belongs to the most aggressive players. The future is now.